Sugar output is likely to increase by 15 per cent in sugar season 2025-26 to about 35 million tonnes on a favourable monsoon. The growth is expected to ease tightness in the domestic supply and has the potential to boost ethanol diversion and revive exports with appropriate policy support. Over the past two seasons, while the fair and remunerative (FRP) price of sugarcane has risen 11 per cent, ethanol prices have largely remained unchanged, compressing the miller’s revenue-cost dynamics.
In fiscal 2026, with improved supplies and potentially higher diversion of sugar for blending ethanol with gasoline, the operating margin of sugar mills is likely to recover to about 9-9.5 per cent, said the report, adding that this is likely to support credit profiles of sugar players, which saw some pressure last fiscal. The report further stated that sugar prices are likely to remain range-bound with output expected to rise, limiting any significant upside in profitability of sugar millers.
Presentation -Dibyabharati Nayak